Model Predictions
| Model | UC Davis Aggies | Cal Poly Mustangs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 71.3% | 28.7% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 57.5% | 42.5% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 54.0% | 46.0% | -0.9 | ✗ (3.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 51.2% | 48.8% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 66.0% | 34.0% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 66.8% | 33.2% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Cal Poly Mustangs +3 (72-69). Predictions use season-end ratings.
UC Davis Aggies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Calegari | 38 | 8-15 | 3-7 | 4-7 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 15 | - |
| J. Harden | 31 | 5-7 | 1-1 | 3-6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 11 | - |
| J. Welch | 28 | 8-13 | 5-6 | 4-7 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 20 | - |
| T. Lowenthal | 26 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | - |
| R. Sypkens | 22 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -2 | - |
| R. Howley | 22 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | - |
| A. Malik | 21 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | - |
| J. Floyd | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| J. Ranger | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Keeler | 34 | 7-12 | 2-4 | 6-8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 13 | - |
| D. Hanson | 30 | 7-14 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 8 | - |
| S. Lewis | 28 | 3-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 6 | - |
| J. Brown | 26 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 8-9 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 8 | - |
| R. Darling | 23 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 16 | - |
| K. Odister | 17 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
| W. Taylor | 16 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | - |
| J. Lewis | 16 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
| D. Royer | 5 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
| C. Anderson | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
* = starter