Model Predictions
| Model | Illinois State Redbirds | Evansville Purple Aces | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 59.1% | 40.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 53.2% | 46.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 54.1% | 45.9% | -0.9 | ✓ (18.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 74.9% | 25.1% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 18.3% | 81.7% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 85.4% | 14.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 85.4% | 14.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Evansville Purple Aces -19 (63-82). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Illinois State Redbirds
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Phillips | 34 | 4-9 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 13 | - |
| O. Eldridge | 34 | 5-6 | 1-1 | 7-9 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 23 | - |
| A. Rubin | 29 | 1-7 | 1-6 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - |
| A. Hill | 24 | 3-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | - |
| J. Carmichael | 20 | 7-9 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 19 | - |
| K. Thornton | 19 | 3-7 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 6 | - |
| T. Lewis | 18 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 13 | - |
| D. Odiakosa | 10 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | - |
| J. Clark | 6 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| T. Johnson | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | - |
| B. Mishler | 1 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| M. Coates | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
Evansville Purple Aces
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Holmes | 38 | 9-14 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 14 | - |
| C. Ryan | 35 | 3-15 | 2-7 | 4-6 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 6 | - |
| J. Haarsma | 34 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 13 | - |
| K. Lacey | 28 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | - |
| N. Cox | 20 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -3 | - |
| M. Hudson | 14 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 | - |
| P. van Tongeren | 13 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - |
| C. Hopf | 13 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | - |
| L. Jones | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
* = starter