Model Predictions
| Model | New Mexico Lobos | San Diego State Aztecs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 29.3% | 70.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 40.6% | 59.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 34.3% | 65.7% | +3.6 | ✓ (6.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 42.3% | 57.7% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 68.2% | 31.8% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 23.5% | 76.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 23.3% | 76.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: San Diego State Aztecs +10 (74-64). Predictions use season-end ratings.
New Mexico Lobos
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Hobson | 35 | 4-17 | 2-3 | 2-6 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 4 | - |
| R. Martinez | 34 | 3-9 | 3-6 | 3-4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 6 | - |
| D. Gary | 32 | 5-9 | 0-2 | 5-6 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 12 | - |
| A.J. Hardeman | 30 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | - |
| P. McDonald | 28 | 3-7 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 4 | - |
| J. Fenton | 15 | 2-6 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | - |
| W. Brown | 12 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | - |
| C. Adams | 7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| C. Dennis | 7 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
San Diego State Aztecs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.J. Gay | 36 | 3-9 | 3-6 | 3-5 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 9 | - |
| M. Thomas | 33 | 7-9 | 0-0 | 4-7 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 25 | - |
| C. Tapley | 31 | 3-9 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 11 | - |
| T. Shelton | 26 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 3-7 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 8 | - |
| K. Leonard | 25 | 1-7 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 11 | - |
| K. Davis | 18 | 3-6 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 5 | - |
| T. Shelley | 15 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | - |
| B. White | 9 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | - |
| B. Carlwell | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | - |
* = starter