Model Predictions
| Model | Michigan State Spartans | Northwestern Wildcats | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 89.8% | 10.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 62.8% | 37.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 64.5% | 35.5% | -3.3 | ✓ (17.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 56.4% | 43.6% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 92.7% | 7.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 78.3% | 21.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 78.4% | 21.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Northwestern Wildcats -21 (70-91). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Michigan State Spartans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Lucas | 35 | 8-12 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 21 | 14 | - |
| R. Morgan | 31 | 5-9 | 1-1 | 6-7 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 18 | - |
| C. Allen | 31 | 3-8 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 11 | - |
| D. Green | 25 | 5-5 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 13 | 21 | - |
| K. Lucious | 23 | 3-6 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 4 | - |
| D. Roe | 21 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | - |
| D. Summers | 14 | 6-10 | 2-4 | 3-3 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 14 | - |
| G. Sherman | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| D. Nix | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
| A. Thornton | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| M. Kebler | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| I. Dahlman | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| T. Herzog | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| J. Crandell | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Northwestern Wildcats
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Thompson | 38 | 2-8 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 8 | - |
| J. Shurna | 35 | 11-20 | 2-8 | 5-5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 29 | 20 | - |
| A. Marcotullio | 28 | 4-9 | 4-7 | 4-5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 11 | - |
| J. Nash | 27 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | - |
| D. Crawford | 26 | 3-7 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | - |
| L. Mirkovic | 18 | 2-9 | 0-1 | 0-4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | - |
| K. Rowley | 11 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - |
| D. Curletti | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| I. Peljusic | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| M. Capocci | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| R. Hearn | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| N. Fruendt | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter