Model Predictions
| Model | Dayton Flyers | New Mexico Lobos | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 32.7% | 67.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 52.1% | 47.9% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 46.9% | 53.1% | +0.7 | ✓ (1.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 47.4% | 52.6% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 16.6% | 83.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 74.9% | 25.1% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 75.0% | 25.0% | - | ✗ |
Actual: New Mexico Lobos +2 (68-66). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Dayton Flyers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Wright | 29 | 2-9 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 8 | - |
| R. Lowery | 24 | 0-11 | 0-10 | 3-4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -4 | - |
| P. Williams | 24 | 3-9 | 1-6 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | - |
| K. Huelsman | 22 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - |
| M. Perry | 22 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 | - |
| C. Johnson | 22 | 7-13 | 5-10 | 2-2 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 18 | - |
| M. Johnson | 17 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | - |
| L. Warren | 15 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | - |
| D. Searcy | 14 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| J. Benson | 11 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
New Mexico Lobos
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Hobson | 37 | 5-12 | 1-1 | 4-6 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 18 | - |
| R. Martinez | 33 | 5-9 | 3-4 | 4-5 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 17 | - |
| W. Brown | 25 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | - |
| P. McDonald | 23 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - |
| D. Gary | 22 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 12-15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 12 | - |
| A.J. Hardeman | 20 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 2-5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | - |
| N. Garth | 18 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | - |
| J. Fenton | 9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -2 | - |
| C. Dennis | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | - |
| C. Adams | 4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | - |
* = starter