Model Predictions
| Model | Michigan State Spartans | North Carolina Tar Heels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 74.5% | 25.5% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 43.8% | 56.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 38.5% | 61.5% | +2.6 | ✓ (14.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 39.0% | 61.0% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 16.2% | 83.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 16.3% | 83.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 16.3% | 83.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: North Carolina Tar Heels +17 (89-72). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Michigan State Spartans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Lucas | 35 | 4-12 | 0-1 | 6-8 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 3 | - |
| G. Suton | 31 | 7-10 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 17 | - |
| T. Walton | 24 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | - |
| D. Summers | 21 | 4-10 | 2-6 | 3-4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 9 | - |
| R. Morgan | 19 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | - |
| C. Allen | 17 | 0-8 | 0-7 | 3-5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -3 | - |
| D. Roe | 17 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | - |
| K. Lucious | 14 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -1 | - |
| D. Green | 12 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 11 | - |
| M. Gray | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| A. Thornton | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
| J. Crandell | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| I. Dahlman | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| I. Ibok | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| T. Herzog | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Lawson | 37 | 3-10 | 0-3 | 15-18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 28 | - |
| W. Ellington | 35 | 7-12 | 3-3 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 11 | - |
| T. Hansbrough | 34 | 6-14 | 0-2 | 6-10 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 11 | - |
| D. Green | 24 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8 | - |
| B. Frasor | 23 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| D. Thompson | 23 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 2 | - |
| E. Davis | 14 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 12 | - |
| L. Drew II | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| M. Campbell | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| T. Zeller | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | - |
| P. Moody | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| M. Copeland | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| J. Watts | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| J.B. Tanner | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter