Model Predictions
| Model | Villanova Wildcats | North Carolina Tar Heels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 21.1% | 78.9% | +8.9 | ✓ (5.1 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 31.8% | 68.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 12.3% | 87.7% | +10.8 | ✓ (3.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 44.1% | 55.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 20.7% | 79.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 20.4% | 79.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 27.8% | 72.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: North Carolina Tar Heels +14 (83-69). Ratings: 2008-09 season-end ratings.
Villanova Wildcats
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dante Cunningham | 35 | 5-13 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 10 | - |
| Scottie Reynolds | 34 | 6-18 | 3-11 | 2-3 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 8 | - |
| Dwayne Anderson | 31 | 2-12 | 0-6 | 2-2 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | - |
| Reggie Redding | 29 | 5-9 | 2-3 | 3-3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 7 | - |
| Corey Fisher | 25 | 5-19 | 0-4 | 3-6 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 1 | - |
| C. Stokes | 20 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| S. Clark | 18 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 10 | - |
| A. Pena | 8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Ellington | 35 | 7-14 | 5-7 | 1-2 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 17 | - |
| Ty Lawson | 34 | 5-11 | 2-4 | 10-17 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 24 | - |
| Tyler Hansbrough | 33 | 5-13 | 0-1 | 8-12 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 19 | - |
| Danny Green | 27 | 4-11 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 7 | - |
| Ed Davis | 22 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | - |
| Deon Thompson | 20 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5 | - |
| B. Frasor | 19 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | - |
| Larry Drew II | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Tyler Zeller | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
* = starter