Model Predictions
| Model | Gonzaga Bulldogs | North Carolina Tar Heels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 66.6% | 33.4% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 50.2% | 49.8% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 46.0% | 54.0% | +0.9 | ✓ (20.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 46.2% | 53.8% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 39.8% | 60.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 15.1% | 84.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 15.1% | 84.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: North Carolina Tar Heels +21 (98-77). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Gonzaga Bulldogs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Daye | 32 | 3-8 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 16 | - |
| M. Bouldin | 30 | 3-10 | 0-5 | 1-1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | - |
| J. Pargo | 29 | 6-10 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 9 | - |
| J. Heytvelt | 29 | 5-9 | 0-1 | 4-8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 2 | - |
| M. Downs | 28 | 5-7 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 14 | - |
| S. Gray | 26 | 3-9 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | - |
| D. Goodson | 19 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - |
| I. Brown | 4 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 4-4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 | - |
| A. Sorenson | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | - |
| W. Foster | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Hansbrough | 34 | 8-10 | 0-0 | 8-9 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 24 | - |
| W. Ellington | 30 | 7-13 | 2-6 | 3-4 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 14 | - |
| D. Green | 28 | 5-11 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 16 | - |
| T. Lawson | 27 | 7-9 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 23 | - |
| E. Davis | 20 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 | - |
| B. Frasor | 20 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 9 | - |
| D. Thompson | 18 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -1 | - |
| L. Drew II | 8 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | - |
| T. Zeller | 5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | - |
| J. Watts | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| J.B. Tanner | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| J. Wooten | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| M. Copeland | 2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| M. Campbell | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter