Model Predictions
| Model | UC Davis Aggies | Air Force Falcons | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 85.4% | 14.6% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 61.8% | 38.2% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 60.0% | 40.0% | -2.2 | ✗ (14.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 79.5% | 20.5% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 83.8% | 16.2% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 38.0% | 62.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 37.0% | 63.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Air Force Falcons +12 (69-57). Predictions use season-end ratings.
UC Davis Aggies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Payne | 38 | 5-9 | 1-2 | 3-3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 17 | - |
| J. Harden | 37 | 6-16 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 9 | - |
| R. Howley | 37 | 0-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
| D. Calegari | 36 | 6-11 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 14 | - |
| R. Silva | 22 | 3-8 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 1 | - |
| R. Sypkens | 19 | 3-9 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -4 | - |
| A. Malik | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - |
| J. Floyd | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Air Force Falcons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Washington | 36 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 0-5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 10 | - |
| T. Fow | 32 | 8-13 | 6-9 | 8-9 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 25 | - |
| M. McLain | 32 | 4-8 | 1-1 | 3-7 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 15 | - |
| T. Fletcher | 23 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | - |
| A. Merriex | 21 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | - |
| M. Lyons | 20 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 6 | - |
| D. Brooks | 10 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| M. Fitzgerald | 9 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
| T. Stewart | 9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | - |
| T. Broekhuis | 8 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | - |
* = starter