Model Predictions
| Model | Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | Air Force Falcons | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 36.4% | 63.6% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 44.2% | 55.8% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 34.3% | 65.7% | +3.6 | ✗ (11.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 63.9% | 36.1% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 90.4% | 9.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 59.6% | 40.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 58.9% | 41.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Air Force Falcons -8 (52-60). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Jones | 34 | 4-11 | 1-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 5 | - |
| N. Larson | 28 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 8 | - |
| S. Johannsen | 26 | 6-8 | 0-0 | 5-9 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 18 | - |
| D. Jones | 24 | 2-10 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 4 | - |
| G. Rogers | 20 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 2-3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 10 | - |
| J. Olubuyi | 19 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| S. Saldivar | 19 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - |
| R. Wallace | 17 | 4-4 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 9 | - |
| J. Lepley | 13 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - |
Air Force Falcons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Washington | 39 | 2-9 | 0-0 | 7-11 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 4 | - |
| M. McLain | 28 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 | - |
| T. Fletcher | 27 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 8 | - |
| T. Fow | 22 | 6-10 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 11 | - |
| T. Broekhuis | 21 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | - |
| M. Lyons | 18 | 2-10 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -1 | - |
| T. Stewart | 16 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | - |
| A. Merriex | 11 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | - |
| D. Brooks | 9 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | - |
| M. Fitzgerald | 6 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| S. Hempsey | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter