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2009-12-01

Model Predictions

Model Michigan State Spartans North Carolina Tar Heels Spread Result
Elo 72.9% 27.1% -
Bradley-Terry 45.1% 54.9% -
Margin 40.7% 59.3% +2.1 (4.9 off)
Pythagorean 70.7% 29.3% -
Efficiency 62.4% 37.6% -
Adjusted Efficiency 78.3% 21.7% -
Log Adjusted 78.6% 21.4% -

Actual: North Carolina Tar Heels +7 (89-82). Predictions use season-end ratings.

Michigan State Spartans

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
K. Lucas 33 6-17 0-3 3-4 2 4 2 0 1 15 5 -
R. Morgan 29 7-10 0-0 4-6 6 2 2 0 5 18 13 -
D. Roe 29 4-6 0-0 0-0 10 2 5 1 2 8 18 -
D. Green 28 4-8 0-0 5-6 7 2 2 1 0 13 17 -
D. Summers 24 7-17 2-6 0-0 2 0 2 0 1 16 2 -
C. Allen 21 2-9 0-6 0-0 4 1 2 0 1 4 1 -
K. Lucious 20 3-11 0-5 0-0 1 5 0 0 0 6 1 -
G. Sherman 11 1-1 0-0 0-0 2 0 0 0 0 2 3 -
A. Thornton 3 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 1 0 -1 -
D. Nix 2 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -

North Carolina Tar Heels

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
M. Ginyard 36 3-5 1-2 2-6 3 7 0 0 2 9 12 -
D. Thompson 31 5-12 0-1 4-5 4 1 1 1 5 14 4 -
E. Davis 29 8-10 0-0 6-8 6 2 1 1 2 22 20 -
L. Drew II 27 6-7 1-2 5-6 2 6 1 0 3 18 17 -
W. Graves 16 2-2 1-1 0-0 4 1 0 0 2 5 6 -
J. Henson 14 1-2 0-1 0-0 3 1 1 4 1 2 8 -
D. Strickland 14 3-5 2-3 1-4 4 3 1 2 0 9 14 -
T. Zeller 13 3-8 0-0 0-1 5 0 0 0 1 6 2 -
D. Wear 7 1-1 0-0 0-0 2 0 0 0 0 2 3 -
T. Wear 6 1-3 0-0 0-0 3 0 0 0 0 2 2 -
L. McDonald 5 0-2 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -
J. Watts 2 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 1 0 -1 -

* = starter