Model Predictions
| Model | Michigan State Spartans | North Carolina Tar Heels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 72.9% | 27.1% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 45.1% | 54.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 40.7% | 59.3% | +2.1 | ✓ (4.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 70.7% | 29.3% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 62.4% | 37.6% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 78.3% | 21.7% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 78.6% | 21.4% | - | ✗ |
Actual: North Carolina Tar Heels +7 (89-82). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Michigan State Spartans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Lucas | 33 | 6-17 | 0-3 | 3-4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 5 | - |
| R. Morgan | 29 | 7-10 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 13 | - |
| D. Roe | 29 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 18 | - |
| D. Green | 28 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 17 | - |
| D. Summers | 24 | 7-17 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 2 | - |
| C. Allen | 21 | 2-9 | 0-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | - |
| K. Lucious | 20 | 3-11 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | - |
| G. Sherman | 11 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| A. Thornton | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| D. Nix | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Ginyard | 36 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 2-6 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 12 | - |
| D. Thompson | 31 | 5-12 | 0-1 | 4-5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 4 | - |
| E. Davis | 29 | 8-10 | 0-0 | 6-8 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 20 | - |
| L. Drew II | 27 | 6-7 | 1-2 | 5-6 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 17 | - |
| W. Graves | 16 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | - |
| J. Henson | 14 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | - |
| D. Strickland | 14 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 1-4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 14 | - |
| T. Zeller | 13 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | - |
| D. Wear | 7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| T. Wear | 6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| L. McDonald | 5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
| J. Watts | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter