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2009-11-29

Model Predictions

Model Nevada Wolf Pack North Carolina Tar Heels Spread Result
Elo 20.9% 79.1% -
Bradley-Terry 14.4% 85.6% -
Margin 5.6% 94.4% +15.6 (8.6 off)
Pythagorean 70.2% 29.8% -
Efficiency 14.5% 85.5% -
Adjusted Efficiency 61.2% 38.8% -
Log Adjusted 61.3% 38.7% -

Actual: North Carolina Tar Heels +7 (80-73). Predictions use season-end ratings.

Nevada Wolf Pack

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
L. Babbitt 38 5-18 1-4 4-4 11 1 0 0 1 15 8 -
B. Fields 36 3-9 0-3 2-2 3 2 0 0 0 8 4 -
A. Johnson 35 10-20 0-2 0-0 2 4 1 0 3 20 4 -
J. Shaw 30 4-10 3-8 0-0 7 1 1 1 1 11 10 -
D. Hunt 26 6-9 0-0 0-0 9 0 0 3 0 12 15 -
R. Kraemer 16 2-5 1-4 0-0 2 0 1 0 1 5 2 -
M. Cukic 13 1-3 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 2 -1 -
L. Giles 5 0-1 0-0 0-0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 -
A. Carp 1 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -

North Carolina Tar Heels

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
M. Ginyard 36 4-11 1-2 1-4 6 4 4 1 0 10 14 -
D. Thompson 33 10-17 0-0 3-5 8 3 1 0 0 23 18 -
L. Drew II 32 4-7 2-3 2-3 3 10 0 0 1 12 17 -
E. Davis 30 6-9 0-0 4-8 15 2 1 3 2 16 26 -
W. Graves 21 2-8 0-2 2-3 5 0 0 1 0 6 4 -
T. Zeller 15 2-5 0-0 0-0 4 0 0 1 1 4 3 -
D. Wear 9 0-4 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -4 -
J. Henson 9 3-4 1-2 0-0 1 0 0 1 1 7 4 -
D. Strickland 8 0-1 0-1 0-0 1 0 0 0 1 0 -1 -
J. Watts 5 1-2 0-0 0-1 1 1 0 0 2 2 0 -
T. Wear 2 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -
C. Shegog 0 4-6 0-0 0-2 8 1 1 2 3 8 11 -
T. Ruffin-Pratt 0 6-10 0-1 4-6 8 2 1 0 6 16 11 -
S. White 0 2-8 1-5 0-0 0 3 1 0 1 5 0 -
L. Broomfield 0 6-8 0-0 2-5 11 1 0 3 2 14 19 -
C. DeGraffenreid 0 2-7 0-1 5-6 3 6 3 0 4 9 10 -

* = starter