Model Predictions
| Model | Towson Tigers | Dayton Flyers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 3.8% | 96.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 8.4% | 91.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 1.4% | 98.6% | +23.6 | ✓ (18.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 19.1% | 80.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 11.4% | 88.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Dayton Flyers +5 (74-69). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Towson Tigers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Lee | 38 | 6-11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 6 | - |
| J. Thornton | 26 | 8-13 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 13 | - |
| R. Nwankwo | 24 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-4 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 11 | - |
| T. Franklin | 21 | 2-8 | 0-3 | 2-3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | -1 | - |
| B. Morris | 19 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | - |
| J. Smith | 19 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | - |
| D. Brewster | 19 | 3-5 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 9 | - |
| R. Polk | 16 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 2-3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | - |
| E. Gumbs | 9 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
| I. Philmore | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Dayton Flyers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Wright | 32 | 5-7 | 0-1 | 10-11 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 22 | - |
| M. Johnson | 32 | 4-10 | 1-3 | 3-5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 12 | - |
| C. Johnson | 30 | 4-10 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 6 | - |
| P. Williams | 25 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | - |
| M. Perry | 22 | 3-7 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 6 | - |
| K. Huelsman | 22 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | - |
| L. Warren | 18 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | - |
| L. Fabrizius | 10 | 3-8 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | - |
| D. Searcy | 9 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | - |
* = starter