Model Predictions
| Model | Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | San Diego State Aztecs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 0.8% | 99.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 11.5% | 88.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 4.6% | 95.4% | +16.7 | ✓ (24.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 17.0% | 83.0% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 11.8% | 88.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: San Diego State Aztecs +41 (89-48). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Jones | 36 | 4-11 | 0-3 | 4-4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 3 | - |
| N. Larson | 31 | 1-6 | 0-4 | 6-6 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 7 | - |
| G. Rogers | 30 | 1-9 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -3 | - |
| D. Jones | 25 | 2-8 | 0-3 | 6-6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5 | - |
| J. Olubuyi | 22 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | - |
| S. Saldivar | 18 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | - |
| R. Wallace | 14 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | - |
| J. Lepley | 10 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | - |
| L. Flores | 9 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| M. Dunn | 5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | - |
San Diego State Aztecs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Leonard | 29 | 4-13 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 10 | - |
| M. Thomas | 27 | 10-11 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 25 | - |
| D.J. Gay | 25 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 11 | - |
| B. Carlwell | 23 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
| C. Tapley | 22 | 5-7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 12 | - |
| T. Shelley | 19 | 8-10 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 14 | - |
| K. Davis | 17 | 3-7 | 1-5 | 4-6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 6 | - |
| B. White | 17 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 11 | - |
| B. Horton | 10 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | - |
| A. Williams | 7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
| J. Deutchman | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | - |
* = starter