Model Predictions
| Model | UC Davis Aggies | Pacific Tigers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 14.2% | 85.8% | +12.3 | ✓ (5.3 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 23.6% | 76.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 15.4% | 84.6% | +9.4 | ✓ (2.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 37.8% | 62.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 16.3% | 83.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 16.3% | 83.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 30.6% | 69.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Pacific Tigers +7 (67-60). Ratings: 2008-09 season-end ratings.
UC Davis Aggies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Calegari | 36 | 7-11 | 1-4 | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 11 | - |
| Joe Harden | 35 | 3-11 | 1-2 | 3-4 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 6 | - |
| V. Oliver | 35 | 4-10 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 1 | - |
| Mark Payne | 34 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 10 | - |
| K. Brucculeri | 17 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | - |
| R. Silva | 16 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 | - |
| T. Lowenthal | 15 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
| M. Boone | 6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | - |
| David Carter | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| D. Oestreicher | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | - |
Pacific Tigers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Willard | 32 | 6-11 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 11 | - |
| M. Kirby | 27 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 4-5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | - |
| B. LeDuc | 25 | 7-10 | 0-3 | 3-3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 11 | - |
| J. Ford | 25 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 9 | - |
| C. Troyer | 24 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | - |
| Terrell Smith | 16 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | - |
| Anthony Brown | 15 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | - |
| J. Doran | 15 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | - |
| L. Neufville | 13 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 10 | - |
| C. Neimeyer | 8 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | - |
* = starter