Model Predictions
| Model | Duke Blue Devils | North Carolina Tar Heels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 72.1% | 27.9% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 59.1% | 40.9% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 56.3% | 43.7% | -1.4 | ✗ (9.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 43.5% | 56.5% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 26.9% | 73.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 21.4% | 78.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 21.2% | 78.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: North Carolina Tar Heels +8 (79-71). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Scheyer | 39 | 7-7 | 3-3 | 7-8 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 29 | - |
| K. Singler | 38 | 7-18 | 4-10 | 5-6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 11 | - |
| E. Williams | 38 | 3-11 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 2 | - |
| G. Henderson | 35 | 4-11 | 0-1 | 6-11 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 6 | - |
| L. Thomas | 31 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - |
| B. Zoubek | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
| G. Paulus | 6 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| D. McClure | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Lawson | 36 | 2-7 | 0-1 | 9-10 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 19 | - |
| D. Green | 34 | 5-10 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 9 | - |
| T. Hansbrough | 33 | 5-11 | 2-3 | 5-7 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 16 | - |
| W. Ellington | 32 | 7-10 | 1-2 | 1-5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 8 | - |
| D. Thompson | 27 | 6-10 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 10 | - |
| B. Frasor | 17 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
| E. Davis | 10 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | - |
| T. Zeller | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| L. Drew II | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| M. Copeland | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter