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2009-03-04

Model Predictions

Model Florida Gators Mississippi State Bulldogs Spread Result
Elo 68.5% 31.5% -
Bradley-Terry 47.6% 52.4% -
Margin 46.0% 54.0% +0.9 (8.1 off)
Pythagorean 50.9% 49.1% -
Efficiency 88.5% 11.5% -
Adjusted Efficiency 67.0% 33.0% -
Log Adjusted 67.3% 32.7% -

Actual: Mississippi State Bulldogs +9 (80-71). Predictions use season-end ratings.

Florida Gators

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
W. Hodge 35 8-13 4-9 0-0 1 1 3 0 0 20 12 -
D. Werner 33 4-9 2-4 0-0 6 1 0 0 1 10 7 -
A. Tyus 29 7-10 0-0 2-6 7 0 1 0 0 16 14 -
N. Calathes 28 4-12 0-4 3-4 5 5 0 0 2 11 7 -
R. Shipman 24 2-5 0-1 1-2 2 0 1 0 0 5 3 -
E. Walker 20 3-11 1-6 0-1 1 2 0 0 2 7 -3 -
C. Parsons 17 1-3 0-1 0-0 5 2 2 0 0 2 8 -
K. Kadji 11 0-2 0-0 0-0 2 0 0 1 2 0 -1 -
A. Chaney 3 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 1 1 2 0 0 -

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
D. Bost 31 2-5 2-5 3-4 3 4 1 0 4 9 8 -
B. Stewart 30 3-8 1-2 5-7 6 3 1 0 3 12 11 -
R. Johnson 29 5-8 4-7 1-1 1 1 0 0 2 15 7 -
J. Varnado 28 6-14 0-0 1-4 8 0 2 2 0 13 11 -
P. Turner 26 2-6 1-2 0-0 6 2 2 0 1 5 8 -
K. Augustus 15 4-5 0-1 1-2 3 0 1 0 1 9 7 -
E. Bailey 12 3-5 0-0 0-0 4 1 2 0 0 6 8 -
R. Benock 11 2-3 2-3 1-2 1 1 0 0 0 7 6 -
T. Beckham 9 1-2 0-0 0-1 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 -
R. Osby 7 1-1 0-0 0-0 1 0 0 0 0 2 2 -
B. Johnson 1 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -
C. Gay 1 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -

* = starter