Model Predictions
| Model | Fresno State Bulldogs | UC Davis Aggies | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 32.8% | 67.2% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 56.2% | 43.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 48.0% | 52.0% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 48.5% | 51.5% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 61.5% | 38.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 61.6% | 38.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 45.2% | 54.8% | - | ✗ |
Actual: UC Davis Aggies -1 (70-71). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Fresno State Bulldogs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Cartwright * | 39 | 5-10 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 15 | - |
| Nedeljko Golubovic * | 38 | 3-7 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 5 | - |
| Mike Ladd * | 37 | 6-10 | 2-3 | 0-2 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 14 | - |
| Sylvester Seay * | 35 | 7-12 | 3-5 | 3-8 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 19 | - |
| Paul George * | 31 | 3-10 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 7 | - |
| Brandon Sperling | 18 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | - |
| Brandon Webster | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
UC Davis Aggies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Payne * | 33 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 15 | - |
| Vince Oliver * | 33 | 3-8 | 1-4 | 2-3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 10 | - |
| Joe Harden * | 32 | 8-11 | 2-2 | 7-8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 25 | 15 | - |
| Dominic Calegari * | 26 | 7-13 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 11 | - |
| David Carter * | 13 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | - |
| Kyle Brucculeri | 25 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Todd Lowenthal | 16 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Ryan Silva | 12 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | - |
| Nathan Clark | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Derek Oestreicher | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Adam Malik | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Michael Boone | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
* = starter