Model Predictions
| Model | Sacramento State Hornets | Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 6.3% | 93.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 20.7% | 79.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 18.1% | 81.9% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 16.3% | 83.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 4.6% | 95.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 4.6% | 95.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 19.5% | 80.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Northern Arizona Lumberjacks +10 (68-58). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Sacramento State Hornets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Adams | 30 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 6 | - |
| Jonathan Malloy | 28 | 6-12 | 1-4 | 3-3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 16 | 7 | - |
| Justin Eller | 27 | 3-9 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 3 | - |
| Antonio Flaggs | 23 | 3-6 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 7 | - |
| Michael Selling | 22 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | - |
| Mike Marcial | 22 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | - |
| Jared Stigall | 18 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Jerome Blockmon | 13 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Donald Thomas | 7 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Alex Ward | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Aaron Wilson | 4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Johannsen | 34 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 5-8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 16 | - |
| Jermaine Bishop | 32 | 3-8 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 10 | - |
| Nick Larson | 30 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - |
| Cameron Jones | 26 | 10-14 | 3-6 | 5-7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 28 | 12 | - |
| Josh Lepley | 25 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 9-14 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 19 | - |
| Shayar Lee | 24 | 1-5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Zarko Comagic | 24 | 1-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -2 | - |
| Eric House | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Josh Wilson | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter