Model Predictions
| Model | Denver Pioneers | Arkansas State Red Wolves | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 67.7% | 32.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 48.5% | 51.5% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 39.3% | 60.7% | +2.4 | ✗ (22.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 50.5% | 49.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 52.5% | 47.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 52.5% | 47.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 44.6% | 55.4% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Arkansas State Red Wolves -20 (53-73). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Denver Pioneers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Lewis | 36 | 6-10 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 16 | - |
| B. Stafford | 35 | 5-11 | 3-5 | 5-6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 9 | - |
| N. Rohnert | 33 | 8-10 | 1-1 | 4-5 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 18 | - |
| T. Hallam | 26 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| K. Lewis | 25 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 | - |
| A. Hooper | 16 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 8 | - |
| S. Chen | 15 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
| J. Coughlin | 10 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | - |
| N. Peter-Denman | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
Arkansas State Red Wolves
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Lance | 32 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
| D. Bryant | 30 | 5-11 | 1-4 | 4-5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 9 | - |
| E. McKinney | 29 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 5 | - |
| D. Boone | 28 | 3-10 | 0-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -2 | - |
| I. Koggu | 27 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 9 | - |
| J. Brown | 22 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 8-10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 11 | - |
| J. Thomas | 12 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Y. Chia-Kur | 9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - |
| S. Morgan | 8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| P.J. Keaton | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter