Model Predictions
| Model | Illinois State Redbirds | Niagara Purple Eagles | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 52.7% | 47.3% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 39.9% | 60.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 42.1% | 57.9% | +1.7 | ✓ (12.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 46.7% | 53.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 55.7% | 44.3% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 55.9% | 44.1% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 45.3% | 54.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Niagara Purple Eagles +14 (70-56). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Illinois State Redbirds
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Holloway | 35 | 5-10 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 9 | - |
| C. Oguchi | 31 | 7-16 | 3-8 | 2-3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 10 | - |
| O. Eldridge | 30 | 1-12 | 0-3 | 1-4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -5 | - |
| B. Sampay | 30 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 14 | - |
| D. Odiakosa | 28 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 6 | - |
| L. Shipley | 25 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 2-4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7 | - |
| A. Rubin | 10 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| K. Thornton | 6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
| L. Phillips | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | - |
Niagara Purple Eagles
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Benn | 38 | 5-16 | 1-5 | 6-8 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 17 | - |
| R. Garrison | 36 | 3-9 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 8 | - |
| T. Lewis | 36 | 7-14 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 7 | - |
| A. Nelson | 23 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 2-4 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 12 | - |
| D. Williamson | 22 | 2-6 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | - |
| B. Egemonye | 21 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8 | - |
| K. Gordon | 13 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | - |
| A. Cooley | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| K. Edwards | 5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
* = starter