Model Predictions
| Model | Dayton Flyers | Saint Louis Billikens | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 66.6% | 33.4% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 80.0% | 20.0% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 56.4% | 43.6% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 58.2% | 41.8% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 82.6% | 17.4% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 82.9% | 17.1% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 54.9% | 45.1% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Saint Louis Billikens +8 (57-49). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Dayton Flyers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Little * | 28 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 6-10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 8 | - |
| London Warren * | 27 | 1-8 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -1 | - |
| Kurt Huelsman * | 24 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | - |
| Marcus Johnson * | 24 | 4-9 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 6 | - |
| Chris Wright * | 22 | 3-9 | 0-1 | 5-8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 7 | - |
| Paul Williams | 20 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Mickey Perry | 19 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -4 | - |
| Devin Searcy | 15 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | - |
| Stephen Thomas | 13 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Luke Fabrizius | 8 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | - |
Saint Louis Billikens
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Lisch * | 36 | 3-8 | 1-3 | 9-10 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 15 | - |
| Tommie Liddell * | 36 | 4-11 | 1-5 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 4 | - |
| Kwamain Mitchell * | 35 | 2-9 | 0-5 | 4-5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 | - |
| Brian Conklin * | 23 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 7 | - |
| Willie Reed * | 22 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Barry Eberhardt | 21 | 4-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 13 | - |
| Brett Thompson | 12 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Kyle Cassity | 12 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Paul Eckerle | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | - |
* = starter