Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | Maryland Terrapins | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 80.8% | 19.2% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 82.4% | 17.6% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 77.3% | 22.7% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 57.5% | 42.5% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 94.2% | 5.8% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 94.5% | 5.5% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 75.4% | 24.6% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Maryland Terrapins +3 (88-85). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Lawson * | 41 | 8-20 | 3-6 | 5-6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 6 | - |
| Wayne Ellington * | 38 | 4-11 | 1-5 | 5-6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 7 | - |
| Tyler Hansbrough * | 34 | 4-12 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 7 | - |
| Danny Green * | 30 | 7-14 | 1-5 | 3-4 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 13 | - |
| Deon Thompson * | 30 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 10 | - |
| Bobby Frasor | 25 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | - |
| Ed Davis | 17 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Tyler Zeller | 6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Larry Drew II | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
Maryland Terrapins
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greivis Vasquez * | 44 | 13-24 | 5-10 | 4-4 | 11 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 35 | 30 | - |
| Dave Neal * | 30 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Landon Milbourne * | 25 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 6 | - |
| Adrian Bowie * | 17 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 2-4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | - |
| Sean Mosley * | 14 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Eric Hayes | 35 | 5-10 | 3-8 | 4-4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 11 | - |
| Cliff Tucker | 29 | 8-12 | 5-7 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 17 | - |
| Dino Gregory | 19 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - |
| Jerome Burney | 12 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
* = starter