Model Predictions
| Model | NC State Wolfpack | North Carolina Tar Heels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 30.6% | 69.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 35.3% | 64.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 23.1% | 76.9% | +6.6 | ✓ (2.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 29.1% | 70.9% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 1.7% | 98.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 1.7% | 98.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: North Carolina Tar Heels +9 (89-80). Predictions use season-end ratings.
NC State Wolfpack
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. McCauley | 36 | 4-11 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 6 | - |
| T. Smith | 31 | 7-12 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 13 | - |
| J. Gonzalez | 26 | 7-8 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 8 | - |
| C. Fells | 26 | 3-8 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 9 | - |
| D. Horner | 26 | 5-8 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 12 | - |
| B. Costner | 23 | 5-7 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 7 | - |
| C.J. Williams | 17 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | - |
| F. Degand | 15 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | - |
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Ellington | 36 | 7-13 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 9 | - |
| T. Lawson | 35 | 7-9 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 20 | - |
| T. Hansbrough | 33 | 10-15 | 0-1 | 7-7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 24 | - |
| D. Green | 32 | 8-12 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 12 | - |
| D. Thompson | 21 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 10 | - |
| E. Davis | 17 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - |
| B. Frasor | 11 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| T. Zeller | 8 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | - |
| L. Drew II | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | - |
| J. Watts | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| M. Copeland | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter