Model Predictions
| Model | UC Davis Aggies | Cal Poly Mustangs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 60.2% | 39.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 59.3% | 40.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 52.1% | 47.9% | -0.5 | ✓ (1.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 57.7% | 42.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 62.0% | 38.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 62.1% | 37.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 51.1% | 48.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Cal Poly Mustangs -2 (73-75). Predictions use season-end ratings.
UC Davis Aggies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Oliver | 39 | 6-12 | 3-7 | 4-6 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 17 | - |
| J. Harden | 32 | 6-13 | 2-2 | 2-3 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 12 | - |
| M. Payne | 27 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 | - |
| D. Calegari | 25 | 3-7 | 2-3 | 7-8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 11 | - |
| T. Lowenthal | 20 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | - |
| K. Brucculeri | 19 | 3-7 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 | - |
| D. Carter | 16 | 1-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -1 | - |
| R. Silva | 11 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -2 | - |
| N. Clark | 5 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | - |
| D. Oestreicher | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
| M. Boone | 3 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | - |
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Keeler | 40 | 4-10 | 2-6 | 8-11 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 7 | - |
| S. Lewis | 35 | 9-15 | 2-6 | 6-6 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 26 | 20 | - |
| C. Thomas | 29 | 1-6 | 0-4 | 0-6 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | - |
| T. Shelton | 29 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 12 | - |
| J. Manley | 21 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | - |
| C. Anderson | 20 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | - |
| J. Brown | 11 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | - |
| W. Dipprey | 10 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - |
| D. Hanson | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter