Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | Duke Blue Devils | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 16.2% | 83.8% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 28.0% | 72.0% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 19.8% | 80.2% | +7.7 | ✗ (21.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 50.5% | 49.5% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 67.1% | 32.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 72.6% | 27.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 72.8% | 27.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Duke Blue Devils -14 (87-101). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Lawson | 34 | 8-11 | 0-1 | 9-9 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 25 | 20 | - |
| W. Ellington | 34 | 4-15 | 1-6 | 6-8 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 11 | - |
| T. Hansbrough | 33 | 6-9 | 1-1 | 4-6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 14 | - |
| B. Frasor | 27 | 3-4 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | - |
| D. Green | 24 | 5-9 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 11 | - |
| D. Thompson | 24 | 6-11 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 7 | - |
| E. Davis | 14 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | - |
| L. Drew II | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | - |
| M. Copeland | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Henderson | 34 | 7-16 | 1-6 | 2-4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 3 | - |
| J. Scheyer | 33 | 6-15 | 2-7 | 6-7 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 10 | - |
| K. Singler | 33 | 9-15 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 17 | - |
| G. Paulus | 28 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 10 | - |
| N. Smith | 22 | 5-9 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 8 | - |
| D. McClure | 21 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | - |
| L. Thomas | 20 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | - |
| B. Zoubek | 9 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - |
* = starter