Model Predictions
| Model | Virginia Cavaliers | North Carolina Tar Heels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 58.5% | 41.5% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 41.8% | 58.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 28.1% | 71.9% | +5.2 | ✓ (9.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 15.5% | 84.5% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: North Carolina Tar Heels +15 (76-61). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Virginia Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Jones | 37 | 7-12 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 17 | - |
| S. Landesberg | 33 | 6-16 | 2-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 10 | - |
| S. Zeglinski | 31 | 4-11 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 7 | - |
| M. Scott | 23 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| J. Tucker | 17 | 2-8 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | - |
| A. Sene | 16 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| S. Tat | 14 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | - |
| T. Soroye | 13 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | - |
| C. Baker | 12 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | - |
| W. Sherrill | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| J. Brandenburg | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - |
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Hansbrough | 33 | 4-11 | 0-0 | 7-9 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 16 | - |
| W. Ellington | 32 | 8-15 | 4-9 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 16 | - |
| T. Lawson | 31 | 4-9 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 13 | - |
| D. Thompson | 29 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 8 | - |
| D. Green | 28 | 6-14 | 3-7 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 13 | - |
| B. Frasor | 15 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - |
| E. Davis | 11 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5 | - |
| L. Drew II | 7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | - |
| J. Watts | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| M. Copeland | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| J.B. Tanner | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| J. Wooten | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | - |
| P. Moody | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| M. Campbell | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter