Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | NC State Wolfpack | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 53.3% | 46.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 50.8% | 49.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 51.5% | 48.5% | -0.3 | ✓ (16.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 64.9% | 35.1% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 96.4% | 3.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 92.3% | 7.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 92.3% | 7.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: NC State Wolfpack -17 (76-93). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Hansbrough | 33 | 12-17 | 1-2 | 6-7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 31 | 19 | - |
| W. Ellington | 33 | 4-7 | 1-2 | 3-3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 14 | - |
| T. Lawson | 31 | 6-10 | 0-1 | 4-5 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 12 | - |
| D. Thompson | 28 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 9 | - |
| B. Frasor | 24 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| D. Green | 22 | 5-11 | 3-8 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 11 | - |
| E. Davis | 17 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 9 | - |
| L. Drew II | 9 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - |
| P. Moody | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| M. Copeland | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| J. Watts | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
NC State Wolfpack
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. McCauley | 32 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | - |
| C. Fells | 30 | 9-15 | 4-8 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 11 | - |
| D. Horner | 27 | 3-7 | 2-4 | 4-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 11 | - |
| F. Degand | 26 | 4-8 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 4 | - |
| B. Costner | 23 | 5-12 | 2-6 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 7 | - |
| T. Smith | 21 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
| T. Ferguson | 18 | 2-6 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | - |
| J. Mays | 14 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 9 | - |
| J. Thomas | 9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
* = starter