Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | Florida State Seminoles | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 76.8% | 23.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 46.2% | 53.8% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 41.6% | 58.4% | +1.9 | ✗ (4.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 67.0% | 33.0% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 94.3% | 5.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 89.3% | 10.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 89.3% | 10.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Florida State Seminoles -3 (77-80). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Ellington | 37 | 3-13 | 2-8 | 6-7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 1 | - |
| T. Lawson | 37 | 6-7 | 1-2 | 8-9 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 25 | - |
| D. Green | 32 | 6-13 | 4-7 | 4-5 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 18 | - |
| D. Thompson | 32 | 2-10 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 4 | - |
| T. Hansbrough | 26 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 | - |
| E. Davis | 22 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 9 | - |
| B. Frasor | 8 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | - |
| L. Drew II | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - |
| W. Graves | 3 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | - |
Florida State Seminoles
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Douglas | 37 | 9-20 | 1-5 | 13-14 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 32 | 13 | - |
| D. Kitchen | 29 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | - |
| S. Alabi | 28 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | - |
| C. Singleton | 27 | 3-6 | 2-3 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 7 | - |
| U. Echefu | 26 | 5-8 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 16 | - |
| L. Loucks | 17 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 6 | - |
| R. Reid | 13 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | - |
| D. Dulkys | 9 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | - |
| J. DeMercy | 9 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
| X. Gibson | 5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
* = starter