Model Predictions
| Model | Cal Poly Mustangs | UC Davis Aggies | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 16.7% | 83.3% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 29.3% | 70.7% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 21.5% | 78.5% | +7.1 | ✗ (9.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 17.6% | 82.4% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 10.7% | 89.3% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 10.6% | 89.4% | - | ✗ |
Actual: UC Davis Aggies -2 (75-77). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Thomas | 36 | 4-7 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 | - |
| T. Shelton | 35 | 8-13 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 13 | - |
| L. Keeler | 33 | 6-12 | 1-4 | 6-6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 13 | - |
| S. Lewis | 25 | 5-15 | 2-8 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 4 | - |
| W. Dipprey | 22 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | - |
| D. Hanson | 17 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 | - |
| J. Manley | 15 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | - |
| C. Anderson | 7 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| B. Henning | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - |
| J. Brown | 4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
UC Davis Aggies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Oliver | 36 | 5-15 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 2 | - |
| J. Harden | 35 | 6-10 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 19 | - |
| M. Payne | 33 | 5-7 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 11 | - |
| D. Calegari | 31 | 5-9 | 2-6 | 3-4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 14 | - |
| D. Carter | 22 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | - |
| K. Brucculeri | 22 | 4-10 | 4-8 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 7 | - |
| T. Lowenthal | 11 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| M. Boone | 5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - |
| R. Silva | 5 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | - |
* = starter