Model Predictions
| Model | Cal Poly Mustangs | UC Davis Aggies | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 20.8% | 79.2% | +9.0 | ✗ (11.0 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 27.9% | 72.1% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 23.4% | 76.6% | +6.5 | ✗ (8.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 36.3% | 63.7% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 32.0% | 68.0% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 31.9% | 68.1% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 35.7% | 64.3% | - | ✗ |
Actual: UC Davis Aggies -2 (75-77). Ratings: 2008-09 season-end ratings.
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaz Thomas * | 36 | 4-7 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 | - |
| T. Shelton * | 35 | 8-13 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 13 | - |
| L. Keeler * | 33 | 6-12 | 1-4 | 6-6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 13 | - |
| S. Lewis * | 25 | 5-15 | 2-8 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 4 | - |
| Wes Dipprey * | 22 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | - |
| David Hanson | 17 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 | - |
| J. Manley | 15 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | - |
| C. Anderson | 7 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| B. Henning | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Justin Brown | 4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
UC Davis Aggies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Oliver * | 36 | 5-15 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 2 | - |
| Joe Harden * | 35 | 6-10 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 19 | - |
| Mark Payne * | 33 | 5-7 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 11 | - |
| D. Calegari * | 31 | 5-9 | 2-6 | 3-4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 14 | - |
| David Carter * | 22 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | - |
| K. Brucculeri | 22 | 4-10 | 4-8 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 7 | - |
| T. Lowenthal | 11 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| M. Boone | 5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - |
| R. Silva | 5 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | - |
* = starter