Model Predictions
| Model | New Mexico Lobos | San Diego State Aztecs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 30.2% | 69.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 40.0% | 60.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 33.0% | 67.0% | +3.9 | ✓ (1.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 47.5% | 52.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 35.7% | 64.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 35.5% | 64.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: San Diego State Aztecs +5 (81-76). Predictions use season-end ratings.
New Mexico Lobos
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Danridge | 30 | 5-12 | 0-1 | 4-6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 12 | - |
| R. Martinez | 29 | 3-10 | 1-6 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 3 | - |
| P. McDonald | 28 | 7-10 | 1-3 | 2-4 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 14 | - |
| D. Faris | 26 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 5-8 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | - |
| D. Gary | 24 | 3-6 | 0-2 | 4-6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 4 | - |
| N. Garth | 20 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 8 | - |
| J. Wills | 14 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | - |
| W. Brown | 12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| C. Toppert | 11 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | - |
| A.J. Hardeman | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | - |
San Diego State Aztecs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Spain | 33 | 8-12 | 3-6 | 11-14 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 30 | 28 | - |
| L. Wade | 32 | 4-7 | 1-2 | 12-15 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 13 | - |
| R. Williams | 30 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | - |
| T. Shelton | 27 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 | - |
| B. White | 25 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 7 | - |
| D.J. Gay | 21 | 0-4 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | - |
| R. Amoroso | 16 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | -6 | - |
| M. Cheriet | 13 | 4-6 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 13 | - |
| M. Thomas | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter