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2009-01-17

Model Predictions

Model Illinois Fighting Illini Michigan State Spartans Spread Result
Elo 37.0% 63.0% -
Bradley-Terry 27.4% 72.6% -
Margin 15.7% 84.3% +9.2 (3.2 off)
Pythagorean 48.1% 51.9% -
Efficiency 16.5% 83.5% -
Adjusted Efficiency 37.1% 62.9% -
Log Adjusted 37.3% 62.7% -

Actual: Michigan State Spartans +6 (63-57). Predictions use season-end ratings.

Illinois Fighting Illini

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
D. McCamey 34 0-9 0-7 3-4 0 7 2 0 3 3 0 -
M. Davis 33 4-7 0-0 2-3 4 3 0 0 3 10 7 -
C. Frazier 32 0-1 0-1 1-2 7 5 2 0 1 1 13 -
T. Meacham 25 1-7 1-7 0-1 6 0 0 0 2 3 0 -
A. Legion 23 6-13 3-5 0-0 3 1 1 0 4 15 3 -
C. Brock 22 6-8 1-2 0-1 2 2 0 0 1 13 8 -
M. Tisdale 16 3-5 0-0 2-2 3 1 0 1 1 8 7 -
D. Keller 9 2-4 0-1 0-0 1 0 0 0 0 4 1 -
R. Semrau 3 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 1 0 -1 -
J. Jordan 3 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -

Michigan State Spartans

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
K. Lucas 34 3-13 0-3 4-4 2 3 1 0 3 10 0 -
R. Morgan 31 2-5 0-1 4-5 8 2 1 0 0 8 14 -
T. Walton 30 3-5 0-0 1-4 3 4 3 0 2 7 10 -
C. Allen 26 3-10 0-4 0-0 4 0 0 0 1 6 -1 -
G. Suton 26 5-8 2-2 0-0 6 2 0 0 2 12 10 -
D. Roe 16 1-4 0-0 3-5 6 1 0 1 1 5 8 -
M. Gray 15 4-5 0-0 3-3 6 0 0 0 2 11 10 -
D. Summers 9 0-3 0-2 1-2 1 0 0 0 2 1 -3 -
K. Lucious 6 1-2 1-2 0-0 0 1 0 0 4 3 -2 -
D. Green 4 0-0 0-0 0-0 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 -
I. Ibok 3 0-0 0-0 0-0 2 0 0 0 1 0 1 -

* = starter