Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | Virginia Cavaliers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 26.2% | 73.8% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 44.0% | 56.0% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 44.9% | 55.1% | +1.1 | ✗ (23.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 78.5% | 21.5% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 96.8% | 3.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 95.6% | 4.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 95.6% | 4.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Virginia Cavaliers -22 (61-83). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Hansbrough | 33 | 6-13 | 1-1 | 15-17 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 28 | - |
| D. Green | 31 | 5-13 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 13 | - |
| T. Lawson | 30 | 7-10 | 3-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 19 | - |
| W. Ellington | 29 | 4-10 | 0-2 | 5-7 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 16 | - |
| D. Thompson | 28 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - |
| E. Davis | 17 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 7 | - |
| L. Drew II | 11 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
| B. Frasor | 10 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| W. Graves | 9 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
| M. Copeland | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| J. Watts | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Virginia Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Farrakhan | 27 | 4-15 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 2 | - |
| S. Landesberg | 27 | 1-9 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | - |
| J. Tucker | 26 | 5-13 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 8 | - |
| S. Zeglinski | 26 | 1-8 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -6 | - |
| A. Sene | 25 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | - |
| M. Scott | 24 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 9 | - |
| C. Baker | 15 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 10 | - |
| M. Diane | 11 | 2-10 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -1 | - |
| J. Jones | 11 | 3-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | - |
| J. Meyinsse | 4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| S. Tat | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| J. Brandenburg | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| W. Sherrill | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter