Model Predictions
| Model | San Diego State Aztecs | Air Force Falcons | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 84.0% | 16.0% | -12.4 | ✓ (4.6 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 87.0% | 13.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 88.3% | 11.7% | -11.1 | ✓ (5.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 70.6% | 29.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 94.0% | 6.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 94.1% | 5.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 72.3% | 27.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Air Force Falcons -17 (44-61). Ratings: 2008-09 season-end ratings.
San Diego State Aztecs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.J. Gay * | 36 | 5-12 | 4-9 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 8 | - |
| Tim Shelton * | 35 | 4-7 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 14 | - |
| Richie Williams * | 33 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7 | - |
| Billy White * | 30 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 12 | - |
| Kyle Spain * | 12 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | - |
| Lorrenzo Wade | 31 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 7-9 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 25 | - |
| Mehdi Cheriet | 11 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | - |
| Ryan Amoroso | 5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Matt Thomas | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Bryce Smith | 1 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Bryan Horton | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Air Force Falcons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anwar Johnson * | 36 | 2-9 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 | - |
| Andrew Henke * | 35 | 2-10 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | - |
| Matt Holland * | 30 | 7-10 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 10 | - |
| Evan Washington * | 22 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | - |
| Mike McLain * | 15 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | - |
| Grant Parker | 25 | 3-10 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | -1 | - |
| Avery Merriex | 21 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | - |
| Taylor Stewart | 14 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | - |
| Jon Atkins | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | - |
* = starter