Model Predictions
| Model | Michigan State Spartans | Northwestern Wildcats | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 90.0% | 10.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 62.3% | 37.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 64.4% | 35.6% | -3.3 | ✓ (7.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 48.0% | 52.0% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 80.3% | 19.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 78.3% | 21.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 78.3% | 21.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Northwestern Wildcats -11 (66-77). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Michigan State Spartans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Lucas | 35 | 5-14 | 2-3 | 5-5 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 12 | - |
| R. Morgan | 32 | 9-13 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 19 | - |
| C. Allen | 26 | 6-14 | 4-7 | 1-4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 7 | - |
| T. Walton | 25 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | - |
| D. Summers | 22 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | - |
| G. Suton | 19 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | - |
| D. Roe | 18 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 13 | - |
| M. Gray | 12 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | - |
| K. Lucious | 6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
| I. Ibok | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| D. Green | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| I. Dahlman | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| M. Kebler | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| A. Thornton | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Northwestern Wildcats
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Coble | 37 | 5-15 | 2-7 | 5-6 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 12 | - |
| M. Thompson | 37 | 4-13 | 2-8 | 1-4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 4 | - |
| C. Moore | 35 | 6-14 | 4-11 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 8 | - |
| J. Shurna | 18 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | - |
| L. Mirkovic | 16 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 11 | - |
| K. Rowley | 16 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | - |
| J. Nash | 14 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - |
| J. Ryan | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | - |
| I. Peljusic | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
| M. Capocci | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
| S. Williams | 5 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
* = starter