Model Predictions
| Model | Dayton Flyers | Toledo Rockets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 89.5% | 10.5% | -15.8 | ✓ (1.8 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 93.1% | 6.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 91.9% | 8.1% | -13.4 | ✓ (0.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 79.8% | 20.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 95.3% | 4.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 95.4% | 4.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 76.2% | 23.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Toledo Rockets -14 (63-77). Ratings: 2008-09 season-end ratings.
Dayton Flyers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Johnson | 30 | 8-12 | 4-7 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 15 | - |
| L. Warren | 24 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 19 | - |
| K. Huelsman | 24 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8 | - |
| C. Little | 22 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 4 | - |
| Chris Wright | 21 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 5 | - |
| Chris Johnson | 20 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | - |
| Rob Lowery | 19 | 5-10 | 3-5 | 0-3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 9 | - |
| Devin Searcy | 13 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | - |
| P. Williams | 10 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Mickey Perry | 9 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| L. Fabrizius | 7 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| S. Thomas | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
Toledo Rockets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Amos | 37 | 9-17 | 0-1 | 5-8 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 14 | - |
| J. Anyijong | 36 | 6-10 | 4-6 | 0-1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 16 | - |
| A. Byrd | 35 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | - |
| T. Kent | 32 | 5-10 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 9 | - |
| C. Sterling | 31 | 3-9 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -3 | - |
| Mouhamed Lo | 14 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | - |
| I. Salter | 11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| L. Bastfield | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter