Model Predictions
| Model | UC Santa Barbara Gauchos | San Diego State Aztecs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 17.1% | 82.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 16.6% | 83.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 6.2% | 93.8% | +15.0 | ✓ (2.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 35.9% | 64.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 2.0% | 98.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 1.9% | 98.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 21.6% | 78.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: San Diego State Aztecs +17 (68-51). Predictions use season-end ratings.
UC Santa Barbara Gauchos
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Devine | 30 | 7-13 | 0-1 | 4-6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 11 | - |
| D.J. Posley | 30 | 3-8 | 2-2 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 3 | - |
| W. Brew | 25 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | - |
| J. Nunnally | 24 | 4-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 3 | - |
| J. Byrd | 22 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | - |
| P. Roemer | 17 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | - |
| G. Somogyi | 15 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 | - |
| J. Powell | 15 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -5 | - |
| J. Serna | 13 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | - |
| J. Weiner | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| S. Phippen | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| N. Quick | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
San Diego State Aztecs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Williams | 33 | 3-8 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 7 | - |
| T. Shelton | 26 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 7 | - |
| R. Amoroso | 25 | 6-10 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 6 | - |
| L. Wade | 25 | 6-8 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 11 | - |
| K. Spain | 23 | 4-7 | 2-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 5 | - |
| D.J. Gay | 22 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 1-3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | - |
| B. White | 18 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | - |
| M. Thomas | 12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
| M. Cheriet | 10 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | - |
| B. Smith | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| J. Deutchman | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| B. Horton | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| T. Island | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter