Model Predictions
| Model | UMass Minutemen | Toledo Rockets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 70.6% | 29.4% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 73.2% | 26.8% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 79.1% | 20.9% | -7.3 | ✗ (8.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 69.0% | 31.0% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 89.7% | 10.3% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 89.7% | 10.3% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 65.0% | 35.0% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Toledo Rockets +1 (57-56). Predictions use season-end ratings.
UMass Minutemen
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Gaffney | 36 | 4-5 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 15 | - |
| C. Lowe | 36 | 6-15 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 7 | - |
| A. Gurley | 35 | 3-10 | 1-6 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 2 | - |
| T. Lynch | 33 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | - |
| R. Harris | 32 | 4-13 | 2-6 | 3-4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 3 | - |
| M. Glass | 11 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | - |
| G. Correia | 9 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | - |
| D. Gibbs | 8 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
Toledo Rockets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Kent | 38 | 5-12 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 14 | - |
| A. Byrd | 35 | 5-9 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 3 | - |
| J. Amos | 29 | 6-7 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 13 | 10 | - |
| J. Anyijong | 28 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | - |
| I. Salter | 25 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 5 | - |
| M. Lo | 20 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | - |
| L. Bastfield | 15 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | - |
| R. Johnson | 10 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | - |
* = starter