Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | Michigan State Spartans | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 14.7% | 85.3% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 41.9% | 58.1% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 33.8% | 66.2% | +3.7 | ✗ (38.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 55.0% | 45.0% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 77.8% | 22.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 77.7% | 22.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 77.7% | 22.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Michigan State Spartans -35 (63-98). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Lawson | 28 | 6-11 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 23 | - |
| W. Ellington | 28 | 8-14 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 10 | - |
| D. Thompson | 28 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 6 | - |
| T. Hansbrough | 27 | 6-13 | 0-0 | 13-13 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 23 | - |
| D. Green | 25 | 2-7 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 12 | - |
| E. Davis | 17 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 6-8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 18 | - |
| B. Frasor | 13 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| L. Drew II | 10 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | - |
| W. Graves | 10 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - |
| P. Moody | 4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| M. Campbell | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| J. Watts | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| J. Wooten | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| J.B. Tanner | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
Michigan State Spartans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Morgan | 30 | 8-14 | 0-1 | 5-5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 14 | - |
| K. Lucas | 29 | 2-10 | 0-3 | 2-4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | - |
| T. Walton | 25 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | - |
| C. Allen | 22 | 6-14 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 5 | - |
| D. Summers | 21 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 3 | - |
| D. Roe | 20 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | - |
| M. Gray | 18 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -2 | - |
| K. Lucious | 11 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -5 | - |
| I. Ibok | 8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| D. Green | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| A. Thornton | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| T. Herzog | 4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | - |
| I. Dahlman | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
* = starter