Model Predictions
| Model | Toledo Rockets | UMBC Retrievers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 21.6% | 78.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 17.4% | 82.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 27.2% | 72.8% | +5.4 | ✓ (0.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 29.4% | 70.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 30.3% | 69.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 30.7% | 69.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 37.2% | 62.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: UMBC Retrievers +5 (61-56). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Toledo Rockets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Byrd | 31 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | - |
| T. Kent | 30 | 7-17 | 3-8 | 2-3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 7 | - |
| J. Anyijong | 28 | 2-8 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 | - |
| R. Johnson | 26 | 3-10 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -2 | - |
| J. Amos | 24 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 3-3 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 9 | - |
| I. Salter | 22 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | - |
| M. Lo | 20 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 | - |
| L. Bastfield | 12 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | - |
| C. Sterling | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| E. Okafor Jr. | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
UMBC Retrievers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Proctor | 40 | 6-14 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 7 | - |
| J. Greene | 40 | 5-11 | 2-7 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 12 | - |
| J. Fry | 36 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 7-8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 8 | - |
| R. Flemming | 34 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 4 | - |
| M. Spadafora | 29 | 1-6 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | - |
| C. Gilliam | 21 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 8 | - |
* = starter