Model Predictions
| Model | Arkansas State Red Wolves | Ball State Cardinals | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 28.8% | 71.2% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 45.1% | 54.9% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 40.5% | 59.5% | +2.1 | ✗ (3.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.3% | 50.7% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 49.9% | 50.1% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 49.8% | 50.2% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 45.5% | 54.5% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Ball State Cardinals -1 (53-54). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Arkansas State Red Wolves
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Koggu | 31 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 1-4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 4 | - |
| E. McKinney | 29 | 8-11 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 27 | - |
| S. Morgan | 27 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 10 | - |
| J. Brown | 23 | 5-10 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 4 | - |
| J. Thomas | 20 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
| D. Boone | 20 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| B. Ayers | 19 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | - |
| M. Lance | 15 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
| D. Bryant | 10 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | - |
| P.J. Keaton | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| L. Handy | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
Ball State Cardinals
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Newell | 35 | 5-15 | 2-5 | 4-7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 7 | - |
| B. Lampley | 31 | 5-8 | 1-1 | 7-9 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 13 | - |
| L. Frazier | 30 | 2-7 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | - |
| M. Perry | 25 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
| E. Wormely | 22 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | - |
| J. Jones | 20 | 0-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
| R. Davis | 15 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | - |
| R. Giles | 12 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 4-4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 | - |
| M. Hubbard | 7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | - |
| B. Chisholm | 3 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
* = starter