Model Predictions
| Model | Illinois State Redbirds | SMU Mustangs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 88.6% | 11.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 83.0% | 17.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 80.9% | 19.1% | -7.9 | ✓ (3.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 70.1% | 29.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 89.1% | 10.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 89.2% | 10.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 67.0% | 33.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: SMU Mustangs -11 (73-84). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Illinois State Redbirds
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Phillips | 35 | 3-7 | 3-5 | 4-6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 7 | - |
| C. Oguchi | 32 | 8-11 | 6-8 | 6-7 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 28 | 25 | - |
| O. Eldridge | 31 | 2-5 | 2-3 | 6-6 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 15 | - |
| D. Odiakosa | 27 | 6-12 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 5 | - |
| E. Holloway | 26 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 13 | - |
| S. Odzic | 15 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | - |
| B. Sampay | 14 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | - |
| B. Holtz | 12 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| K. Thornton | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| J. Robinson | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| L. Shipley | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
SMU Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. McCoy | 38 | 8-11 | 0-1 | 6-8 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 20 | - |
| D. Williams | 31 | 5-13 | 1-5 | 5-6 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 5 | - |
| B. Fall | 28 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | - |
| R. Harp | 23 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | - |
| M. Walker | 20 | 5-7 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 7 | - |
| F. Otis | 18 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1-6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | - |
| P. Dia | 17 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | - |
| A. Malone | 11 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| J. Haynes | 8 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
| R. Nyakundi | 6 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
* = starter