Model Predictions
| Model | Little Rock Trojans | Cal Poly Mustangs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 85.3% | 14.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 85.4% | 14.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 66.8% | 33.2% | -3.8 | ✓ (23.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 65.1% | 34.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 76.2% | 23.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 76.0% | 24.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 58.6% | 41.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Cal Poly Mustangs -27 (40-67). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Little Rock Trojans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Mouzy | 33 | 6-10 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 10 | - |
| J. Fowler | 28 | 5-9 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 5 | - |
| B. Patterson | 27 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 10 | - |
| M. Smith | 26 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | - |
| L. Foster | 22 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | - |
| S. Edwards | 19 | 5-7 | 2-2 | 3-6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 10 | - |
| C. Jackson | 15 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 6 | - |
| L. Jackson | 12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | - |
| C. Jackson | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | - |
| W. Burton | 6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| D. Bails | 3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| K. Stewart | 3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Shelton | 31 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 5-8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 6 | - |
| T. Clark | 30 | 0-7 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -5 | - |
| W. Dipprey | 27 | 4-10 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 5 | - |
| L. Keeler | 26 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| D. Hanson | 22 | 3-8 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 8 | - |
| S. Lewis | 18 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | -1 | - |
| C. Anderson | 15 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| B. Henning | 14 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | - |
| J. Brown | 11 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
| J. Lewis | 3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | - |
| R. Darling | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter