Model Predictions
| Model | Dayton Flyers | Illinois State Redbirds | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 73.0% | 27.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 66.5% | 33.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 68.3% | 31.7% | -4.2 | ✓ (2.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 41.8% | 58.2% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 93.0% | 7.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 66.1% | 33.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 66.6% | 33.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Illinois State Redbirds -7 (48-55). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Dayton Flyers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Roberts * | 34 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 16 | - |
| M. Johnson * | 28 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 7 | - |
| K. Huelsman * | 26 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | - |
| A. Sandoval * | 23 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | - |
| J. Binnie * | 23 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 8 | - |
| C. Little | 24 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | - |
| L. Warren | 16 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16 | - |
| C. Wright | 10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 14 | - |
| M. Perry | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| D. Searcy | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
Illinois State Redbirds
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Richardson * | 35 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 14 | - |
| A. Slack * | 29 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 23 | - |
| D. Odiakosa * | 28 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 17 | - |
| O. Eldridge * | 25 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 20 | - |
| E. Holloway * | 21 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | - |
| D. Johnson | 29 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | - |
| L. Dyer | 12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| A. Rubin | 11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| B. Sampay | 10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | - |
* = starter