Model Predictions
| Model | Atlanta Dream | Phoenix Mercury | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 24.9% | 75.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 27.7% | 72.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 23.8% | 76.2% | +6.4 | ✓ (19.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 43.4% | 56.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 35.4% | 64.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 35.4% | 64.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 37.6% | 62.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Phoenix Mercury +26 (110-84). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Atlanta Dream
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kasha Terry * | 30 | 7-12 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 15 | - |
| Ivory Latta * | 27 | 6-13 | 1-3 | 5-5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 13 | - |
| Iziane Castro Marques * | 23 | 3-10 | 1-7 | 10-11 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 13 | - |
| Jennifer Lacy * | 18 | 0-6 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | - |
| Betty Lennox * | 17 | 3-8 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 3 | - |
| Kristin Haynie | 17 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 | - |
| Katie Mattera | 16 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | - |
| Tamera Young | 16 | 2-9 | 1-1 | 4-6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 5 | - |
| Alison Bales | 14 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | - |
| Ann Strother | 11 | 0-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | - |
| Chioma Nnamaka | 6 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | - |
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tangela Smith * | 23 | 5-13 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 7 | - |
| Diana Taurasi * | 22 | 8-16 | 2-5 | 3-3 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 15 | - |
| Cappie Pondexter * | 21 | 8-19 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 8 | - |
| Kelly Miller * | 20 | 4-11 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 8 | - |
| Le'coe Willingham * | 18 | 4-9 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 8 | - |
| Kelly Mazzante | 23 | 4-8 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 9 | - |
| LaToya Sanders | 18 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | - |
| Yuko Oga | 17 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Allie Quigley | 15 | 5-9 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 10 | - |
| Barbara Farris | 12 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | - |
| Brooke Smith | 7 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 5 | - |
* = starter