Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | Duke Blue Devils | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 16.8% | 83.2% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 30.3% | 69.7% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 20.4% | 79.6% | +7.5 | ✗ (15.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.9% | 50.1% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 49.5% | 50.5% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 72.2% | 27.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 72.4% | 27.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Duke Blue Devils -8 (68-76). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Hansbrough | 37 | 8-21 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 12 | - |
| W. Ellington | 35 | 6-14 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 6 | - |
| M. Ginyard | 27 | 1-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | -4 | - |
| D. Green | 25 | 8-14 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 20 | - |
| D. Thompson | 24 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 14 | - |
| T. Lawson | 23 | 4-10 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 7 | - |
| Q. Thomas | 17 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | - |
| A. Stepheson | 6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| W. Graves | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Singler | 37 | 3-10 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 7 | - |
| D. Nelson | 35 | 3-12 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 0 | - |
| J. Scheyer | 32 | 5-12 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 11 | - |
| G. Paulus | 32 | 5-14 | 4-10 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 4 | - |
| G. Henderson | 29 | 3-12 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 11 | - |
| L. Thomas | 12 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | - |
| B. Zoubek | 9 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | - |
| N. Smith | 8 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | - |
| D. McClure | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - |
| T. King | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter