Model Predictions
| Model | Duke Blue Devils | Virginia Cavaliers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 56.9% | 43.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 60.6% | 39.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 66.2% | 33.8% | -3.7 | ✓ (12.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 71.2% | 28.8% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 91.9% | 8.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 89.3% | 10.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 89.4% | 10.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Virginia Cavaliers -16 (70-86). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Paulus | 33 | 5-10 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 9 | - |
| K. Singler | 32 | 8-21 | 2-9 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 3 | - |
| J. Scheyer | 29 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 3-3 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 10 | - |
| D. Nelson | 29 | 6-10 | 2-3 | 2-5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 13 | - |
| G. Henderson | 28 | 8-13 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 16 | - |
| L. Thomas | 16 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | - |
| B. Zoubek | 13 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | - |
| N. Smith | 11 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | - |
| D. McClure | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| T. King | 4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
Virginia Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Singletary | 35 | 6-16 | 1-7 | 5-6 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 5 | - |
| C. Baker | 31 | 7-15 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 0 | - |
| M. Diane | 23 | 4-5 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 10 | - |
| M. Scott | 22 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | - |
| J. Tucker | 21 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 11 | - |
| L. Mikalauskas | 19 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 7 | - |
| J. Jones | 17 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
| A. Joseph | 14 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | - |
| R. Pettinella | 12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - |
| S. Tat | 6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
* = starter