Model Predictions
| Model | Sacramento State Hornets | UC Davis Aggies | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 28.7% | 71.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 24.7% | 75.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 22.6% | 77.4% | +6.8 | ✓ (0.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 32.5% | 67.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 35.5% | 64.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 36.0% | 64.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 36.4% | 63.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: UC Davis Aggies +6 (83-77). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Sacramento State Hornets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. McGhee | 40 | 9-15 | 6-8 | 0-0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 15 | - |
| C. Woods | 35 | 6-17 | 3-11 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 5 | - |
| J. Williams | 33 | 6-12 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 13 | - |
| L. Leath | 28 | 5-15 | 0-5 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -2 | - |
| J. Davis | 18 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 4-8 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 8 | - |
| D. Ferguson | 16 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | - |
| J. Eller | 12 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
| A. Young | 12 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
| W. Aboubakar | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| D. Thomas | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
UC Davis Aggies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Payne | 39 | 4-8 | 1-2 | 10-11 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 30 | - |
| V. Oliver | 38 | 8-11 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 14 | - |
| D. Carter | 34 | 4-9 | 2-4 | 6-6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 7 | - |
| D. Calegari | 31 | 8-12 | 4-5 | 2-2 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 23 | - |
| C. Portz | 23 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 1 | - |
| S. Hanson | 14 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| K. Brucculeri | 12 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | - |
| N. Clark | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| K. Toth | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter