Model Predictions
| Model | Missouri State Bears | Illinois State Redbirds | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 77.0% | 23.0% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 54.9% | 45.1% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 42.4% | 57.6% | +1.7 | ✓ (10.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 55.4% | 44.6% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Illinois State Redbirds +12 (78-66). Predictions use season-end ratings.