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2008-02-20

Model Predictions

Model North Carolina Tar Heels NC State Wolfpack Spread Result
Elo 56.0% 44.0% -
Bradley-Terry 53.2% 46.8% -
Margin 54.0% 46.0% -0.9 (13.1 off)
Pythagorean 78.3% 21.7% -
Efficiency 96.2% 3.8% -
Adjusted Efficiency 95.2% 4.8% -
Log Adjusted 95.2% 4.8% -

Actual: NC State Wolfpack -14 (70-84). Predictions use season-end ratings.

North Carolina Tar Heels

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
W. Ellington 38 8-13 3-4 2-2 8 1 2 0 1 21 18 -
T. Hansbrough 37 11-19 0-0 10-13 12 0 5 0 3 32 27 -
M. Ginyard 32 6-9 0-0 1-2 6 1 2 0 2 13 11 -
Q. Thomas 31 5-7 0-1 0-1 0 7 0 0 2 10 8 -
D. Green 24 2-8 0-1 0-0 3 1 0 1 0 4 1 -
A. Stepheson 21 1-4 0-0 0-0 5 0 0 1 1 2 3 -
D. Thompson 13 1-3 0-0 0-0 0 1 0 0 1 2 -1 -
W. Graves 3 0-1 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 1 0 -2 -
M. Copeland 1 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -

NC State Wolfpack

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
C. Fells 32 4-9 1-5 1-2 3 2 2 0 2 10 6 -
J. Gonzalez 30 2-6 2-5 0-0 2 9 1 0 3 6 9 -
G. Grant 29 6-11 1-4 4-4 3 2 1 0 3 17 9 -
J. Hickson 26 5-9 0-0 3-4 7 1 0 2 5 13 9 -
B. McCauley 21 2-4 0-0 1-3 2 2 0 1 2 5 4 -
B. Costner 20 2-5 1-3 2-2 3 0 1 1 1 7 6 -
T. Smith 13 3-4 0-0 2-3 2 0 0 0 1 8 5 -
T. Ferguson 11 0-1 0-1 0-0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -
D. Horner 8 0-0 0-0 1-2 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 -
M. Johnson 8 1-2 1-1 0-0 0 1 0 0 1 3 1 -
S. Harris 2 0-0 0-0 0-0 1 1 1 0 0 0 3 -

* = starter