Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | NC State Wolfpack | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 56.0% | 44.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 53.2% | 46.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 54.0% | 46.0% | -0.9 | ✓ (13.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 78.3% | 21.7% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 96.2% | 3.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 95.2% | 4.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 95.2% | 4.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: NC State Wolfpack -14 (70-84). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Ellington | 38 | 8-13 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 18 | - |
| T. Hansbrough | 37 | 11-19 | 0-0 | 10-13 | 12 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 32 | 27 | - |
| M. Ginyard | 32 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 11 | - |
| Q. Thomas | 31 | 5-7 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 8 | - |
| D. Green | 24 | 2-8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | - |
| A. Stepheson | 21 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - |
| D. Thompson | 13 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | - |
| W. Graves | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
| M. Copeland | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
NC State Wolfpack
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Fells | 32 | 4-9 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 6 | - |
| J. Gonzalez | 30 | 2-6 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | - |
| G. Grant | 29 | 6-11 | 1-4 | 4-4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 9 | - |
| J. Hickson | 26 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 9 | - |
| B. McCauley | 21 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | - |
| B. Costner | 20 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | - |
| T. Smith | 13 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | - |
| T. Ferguson | 11 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| D. Horner | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | - |
| M. Johnson | 8 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | - |
| S. Harris | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
* = starter